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Avalanche
of early
votes
transforming
2020
election
By
NICHOLAS
RICCARDI
and
ANGELIKI
KASTANIS
apnews.com
More
than 17
million
Americans
have
already
cast
ballots
in the
2020
election,
a
record-shattering
avalanche
of early
votes
driven
both by
Democratic
enthusiasm
and a
pandemic
that has
transformed
the way
the
nation
votes.
The
total
represents
12% of
the all
votes
cast in
the 2016
presidential
election,
even as
eight
states
are not
yet
reporting
their
totals
and
voters
still
have
more
than two
weeks to
cast
ballots.
Americans’
rush to
vote is
leading
election
experts
to
predict
that a
record
150
million
votes
may be
cast and
turnout
rates
could be
higher
than in
any
presidential
election
since
1908.
“It’s
crazy,”
said
Michael
McDonald,
a
University
of
Florida
political
scientist
who has
long
tracked
voting
for his
site
ElectProject.org.
McDonald’s
analysis
shows
roughly
10 times
as many
people
have
voted
compared
with
this
point in
2016.
“We
can be
certain
this
will be
a
high-turnout
election,”
McDonald
said.
So
far the
turnout
has been
lopsided,
with
Democrats
outvoting
Republicans
2-1 in
the 42
states
included
in The
Associated
Press
count.
Republican
have
been
bracing
themselves
for this
early
Democratic
advantage
for
months,
as
they’ve
watched
President
Donald
Trump
rail
against
mail
ballots
and
raise
unfounded
worries
about
fraud.
Polling,
and now
early
voting,
suggest
the
rhetoric
has turn
his
party’s
rank-and-file
away
from a
method
of
voting
that,
traditionally,
they
dominated
in the
weeks
before
Election
Day.
That
gives
Democrats
a
tactical
advantage
in the
final
stretch
of the
campaign.
In many
critical
battleground
states,
Democrats
have
“banked”
a chunk
of their
voters
and can
turn
their
time and
money
toward
harder-to-find
infrequent
voters.
But
it does
not
necessarily
mean
Democrats
will
lead in
votes by
the time
ballots
are
counted.
Both
parties
anticipate
a swell
of
Republican
votes on
Election
Day that
could,
in a
matter
of
hours,
dramatically
shift
the
dynamic.
“The
Republican
numbers
are
going to
pick
up,”
said
John
Couvillon,
a GOP
pollster
who is
tracking
early
voting.
“The
question
is at
what
velocity,
and
when?”
Couvillon
said
Democrats
can’t
rest on
their
voting
lead,
but
Republicans
are
themselves
making a
big
gamble.
A number
of
factors,
from
rising
virus
infections
to the
weather,
can
impact
in-person
turnout
on
Election
Day. “If
you’re
putting
all your
faith
into one
day of
voting,
that’s
really
high
risk,”
Couvillon
said.
That’s
why,
despite
Trump’s
rhetoric,
his
campaign
and
party
are
encouraging
their
own
voters
to cast
ballots
by mail
or early
and
in-person.
The
campaign,
which
has been
sending
volunteers
and
staffers
into the
field
for
months
despite
the
pandemic,
touts
that it
has
registered
more
voters
this
year
than
Democrats
in key
swing
states
like
Florida
and
Pennsylvania
— a
sharp
reversal
from the
usual
pattern
as a
presidential
election
looms.
But
it’s had
limited
success
in
selling
absentee
voting.
In key
swing
states,
Republicans
remain
far less
interested
in
voting
by mail.
In
Pennsylvania,
more
than
three-quarters
of the
more
than
437,000
ballots
sent
through
the mail
so far
have
been
from
Democrats.
In
Florida,
half of
all
ballots
sent
through
the mail
so far
have
been
from
Democrats
and less
than a
third of
them
from
Republicans.
Even in
Colorado,
a state
where
every
voter is
mailed a
ballot
and
Republicans
usually
dominate
the
first
week of
voting,
only 19%
of
ballots
returned
have
been
from
Republicans.
“This is
all
encouraging,
but
three
weeks is
a
lifetime,”
Democratic
data
strategist
Tom
Bonier
said of
the
early
vote
numbers.
“We may
be
midway
through
the
first
quarter
and
Democrats
have put
a couple
of
points
on the
board.”
The
massive
amount
of
voting
has
occurred
without
any of
the
violent
skirmishes
at
polling
places
that
some
activists
and law
enforcement
officials
feared.
It has
featured
high-profile
errors —
100,000
faulty
mail
ballots
sent out
in New
York,
50,000
in
Columbus,
Ohio,
and a
vendor
supplying
that
state
and
Pennsylvania
blaming
delays
on
sending
ballots
on
overwhelming
demand.
But
there’s
little
evidence
of mass
disruption
that
some
feared
as
election
offices
had to
abruptly
shift to
deal
with an
influx
of early
voting.
But
there
have
been
extraordinary
lines
and
hours-long
wait
times in
Georgia,
Texas
and
North
Carolina
as
they’ve
opened
in-person
early
voting.
The
delays
were
largely
a result
of
insufficient
resources
to
handle
the
surge,
something
advocates
contend
is a
form of
voter
suppression.
Republicans
argue
that
these
signs of
enthusiasm
are
meaningless
—
Democratic
early
voters
are
people
who
would
have
voted
anyway,
they
say. But
an AP
analysis
of the
early
vote
shows 8%
of early
voters
had
never
cast a
ballot
before,
and
13.8%
had
voted in
half or
fewer of
previous
elections
for
which
they
were
eligible.
The
data
also
show
voters
embracing
mail
voting,
which
health
officials
say is
the
safest
way to
avoid
coronavirus
infection
while
voting.
Of the
early
voters,
82% cast
ballots
through
the mail
and 18%
in
person.
Black
voters
cast 10%
of the
ballots
cast,
about
the same
as their
share of
the
national
electorate,
according
to the
AP
analysis
of data
from L2,
a
political
data
firm.
That’s a
sign
that
those
voters,
who have
been
less
likely
to vote
by mail
than
white
people
and
Latinos,
have
warmed
to the
method.
Mail
ballots
so far
have
skewed
toward
older
voters,
with
half
coming
from
voters
over age
64.
Traditionally,
younger
and
minority
voters
send
their
mail
ballots
in
closer
to
Election
Day or
vote in
person.
The
mail
ballots
already
returned
in
several
states
dwarf
the
entire
total in
prior
elections.
In
Wisconsin,
more
than
five
times as
many
mail
ballots
have
been
cast
compared
with the
entire
number
in 2016.
North
Carolina
has seen
nearly
triple
the
number
so far.
In-person
early
voting
began
this
week in
several
major
states
and also
broke
records,
particularly
in
crowded,
Democratic-leaning
metropolitan
areas.
In
Texas,
Houston’s
Harris
County
saw a
record
125,000
ballots
cast. In
Georgia,
hours-long
lines
threaded
from
election
offices
through
much of
the
state’s
urban
areas.
Tunde
Ezekiel,
a
39-year-old
lawyer
and
Democrat
who
voted
early in
Atlanta
on
Thursday,
said he
wanted
to be
certain
he had a
chance
to oust
Trump
from
office:
“I don’t
know
what
things
are
going to
look
like on
Election
Day. ...
And I
didn’t
want to
take any
chances.”
The
obvious
enthusiasm
among
Democrats
has
cheered
party
operatives,
but they
note
that
it’s
hard to
tell
which
way
turnout
will
eventually
fall.
Republicans
may be
just as
motivated,
but
saving
themselves
for
Election
Day.
“High
turnout
can
benefit
either
side,”
Bonier
said.
“It just
depends.”
__
Associated
Press
writers
Kate
Brumback
in
Atlanta
and Pia
Deshpande
in
Chicago
contributed
to this
report.
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