President Donald Trump delivers his
first State of the Union address in
the House chamber of the U.S.
Capitol to a joint session of
Congress Tuesday. (Win McNamee /
Pool photo via AP)
AP FACT
CHECK:
Trump’s
flawed
claims
in State
of the
Union By
CHRISTOPHER
RUGABER
and
CALVIN
WOODWARD
APNews.com
WASHINGTON
-
Boastful
even
within
the
traditional
confines
of a
State of
the
Union
speech,
President
Donald
Trump
inflated
the
impact
of his
tax cuts
Tuesday
night,
declared
an end
to a
“war” on
energy
that did
not
exist
when he
took
office
and
displayed
a faulty
grasp of
immigration
policy.
A
look at
some of
the
statements
in his
speech
and how
they
compare
with the
facts:
President
Donald
Trump
delivers
his
first
State of
the
Union
address
in the
House
chamber
of the
U.S.
Capitol
to a
joint
session
of
Congress
Tuesday,
Jan. 30,
2018 in
Washington.
(Win
McNamee/Pool
via AP)
TRUMP:
“We
enacted
the
biggest
tax cuts
and
reform
in
American
history.”
THE
FACTS:
No truer
now than
in the
countless
other
times he
has said
the
same.
The
December
tax
overhaul
ranks
behind
Ronald
Reagan’s
in the
early
1980s,
post-World
War II
tax cuts
and at
least
several
more.
An
analysis
by the
Committee
for a
Responsible
Federal
Budget
in the
fall put
Trump’s
package
as the
eighth
biggest
since
1918. As
a
percentage
of the
total
economy,
Reagan’s
1981 cut
is the
biggest
followed
by the
1945
rollback
of taxes
that
financed
World
War II.
Valued
at $1.5
trillion
over 10
years,
the plan
is
indeed
large
and
expensive.
But it’s
much
smaller
than
originally
intended.
Back in
the
spring,
it was
shaping
up as a
$5.5
trillion
package.
Even
then it
would
have
only
been the
third
largest
since
1940 as
a share
of gross
domestic
product.
___
TRUMP:
“After
years
and
years of
wage
stagnation,
we are
finally
seeing
rising
wages.”
THE
FACTS:
Actually,
they are
not
rising
any
faster
than
they
have
before.
Average
hourly
pay rose
2.5
percent
in 2017,
slightly
slower
than the
2.9
percent
increase
recorded
in 2016
under
President
Barack
Obama.
Most
economists
say that
wages
should
increase
at a
faster
rate as
the
unemployment
rate
drops.
The
unemployment
rate
stands
at a
17-year
low of
4.1
percent,
but that
has done
little
so far
to spark
rising
wages.
The
last
time
unemployment
was this
low, in
the late
1990s,
average
hourly
pay was
rising
at a 4
percent
pace.
____
TRUMP:
“The
third
pillar
(of my
immigration
plan)
ends the
visa
lottery
— a
program
that
randomly
hands
out
green
cards
without
any
regard
to
skill,
merit or
the
safety
of our
people.”
THE
FACTS:
That’s a
highly
misleading
characterization.
The
program
is not
nearly
that
random
and it
does
address
skills,
merit
and
safety.
The
diversity
visa
program
awards
up to
50,000
green
cards a
year to
people
from
underrepresented
countries,
largely
in
Africa.
It
requires
applicants
to have
completed
a high
school
education
or have
at least
two
years of
experience
in the
last
five
years in
a
selection
of
fields
identified
by the
Labor
Department.
Winners
are then
randomly
selected
by
computer,
from
that
pool of
applicants
who met
the
pre-conditions.
Winners
must
submit
to
extensive
background
checks,
just
like any
other
immigrant.
____
TRUMP:
“We have
ended
the war
on
American
energy.”
THE
FACTS:
Energy
production
was
unleashed
in past
administrations,
particularly
Barack
Obama’s,
making
accusations
of a war
on
energy
hard to
sustain.
Advances
in
hydraulic
fracturing
before
Trump
became
president
made it
economical
to tap
vast
reserves
of
natural
gas. Oil
production
also
greatly
increased,
reducing
imports.
In
this
July 12,
2017,
file
photo
the
Valero
Benicia
Refinery
in
Benicia,
Calif.
(AP
Photo/Rich
Pedroncelli,
File)
Before
the 2016
presidential
election,
the U.S.
for the
first
time in
decades
was
getting
more
energy
domestically
than it
imports.
Before
Obama,
George
W. Bush
was no
adversary
of the
energy
industry.
One
of
Trump’s
consequential
actions
as
president
on this
front
was to
approve
the
Keystone
XL
pipeline
— a
source
of
foreign
oil,
from
Canada.
___
TRUMP:
“We are
now very
proudly
an
exporter
of
energy
to the
world.”
THE
FACTS:
There’s
nothing
new in
that:
The U.S.
has long
exported
all
sorts of
energy,
while
importing
even
more. If
Trump
meant
that the
U.S. has
become a
net
exporter
of
energy,
he’s
rushing
things
along.
The U.S.
Energy
Information
Administration
projects
that the
U.S.
will
become a
net
energy
exporter
in the
next
decade,
primarily
because
of a
boom in
oil and
gas
production
that
began
before
Trump’s
presidency.
The
Trump
White
House
has
predicted
that
could
happen
sooner,
by 2020.
But
that’s
not
“now.”
___
TRUMP:
“For
decades,
open
borders
have
allowed
drugs
and
gangs to
pour
into our
most
vulnerable
communities.”
THE
FACTS:
The
borders
were far
from
open
before
his
presidency,
however
imperfectly
they may
have
been
guarded.
The
government
under
Presidents
George
W. Bush
and
Barack
Obama
roughly
doubled
the
ranks of
the
Border
Patrol,
and Bush
extended
fencing
to cover
nearly
one-third
of the
border
during
his
final
years in
office.
The
Obama
administration
deported
more
than 2
million
immigrants
during
the
eight
years he
was in
office,
more
than in
previous
administrations.
Border
arrests,
a useful
if
imperfect
gauge of
illegal
crossings,
have
dropped
sharply
over the
last
decade.
___
TRUMP:
“We
slashed
the
business
tax rate
from 35
percent
all the
way down
to 21
percent,
so
American
companies
can
compete
and win
against
anyone
else
anywhere
in the
world.
These
changes
alone
are
estimated
to
increase
average
family
income
by more
than
$4,000.
A lot of
money.”
THE
FACTS:
Few
economists
think
average
incomes
will
jump by
$4,000
simply
because
companies
are
paying
less in
taxes.
The
figure
cited by
Trump
comes
from his
chief
economist,
Kevin
Hassett.
Many
mainstream
economists
poked
wide
holes
into
this
claim,
including
the
author
of one
of the
research
papers
cited by
Hassett.
Economists
generally
say most
of the
savings
from
lower
corporate
taxes
would
flow to
investors,
rather
than
workers.
The
problem
with the
$4,000
claim is
that
Trump is
essentially
promising
$500
billion
in
income
gains
across
the
entire
economy
from tax
cuts
that are
a small
fraction
of that
total on
an
annual
basis.
___
TRUMP:
“Since
we
passed
tax
cuts,
roughly
3
million
workers
have
already
gotten
tax cut
bonuses
— many
of them
thousands
and
thousands
of
dollars
per
worker.”
THE
FACTS:
This
appears
to be
true,
but may
not be
as
impressive
as it
sounds.
According
to a
tally of
public
announcements
by
Americans
for Tax
Reform,
a
conservative
group
that
supported
the tax
law,
about 3
million
workers
have
gotten
bonuses,
raises
or
larger
payments
to their
retirement
accounts
since
the tax
law was
signed.
That’s
about 2
percent
of the
more
than 154
million
Americans
with
jobs.
The
Labor
Department
said
before
the tax
package
was
signed
into law
that 38
percent
of
workers
would
probably
get some
form of
bonus in
2017.
President
Donald
Trump
displays
the $1.5
trillion
tax
overhaul
package
he
signed,
Friday,
Dec. 22,
2017, in
the Oval
Office
of the
White
House in
Washington.
(AP
Photo/Evan
Vucci,
File)
Few
companies
have yet
granted
across-the-board
pay
raises,
which
Trump
and GOP
leaders
promised
would
result
from the
cut in
corporate
tax
rates
included
in the
overhaul.
Many,
such as
Walmart
and BB&T
Bank,
said
they
will
raise
their
minimum
wages.
Walmart
made
similar
announcements
in 2015
and
2016.
___
TRUMP:
“Many
car
companies
are now
building
and
expanding
plants
in the
United
States,
something
we
haven’t
seen for
decades.”
THE
FACTS:
He’s
wrong
about
recent
decades.
The auto
industry
has
regularly
been
opening
and
expanding
factories
since
before
Trump
became
president.
Toyota
opened
its
Mississippi
factory
in 2011.
Hyundai’s
plant in
Alabama
dates to
2005. In
2010,
Tesla
fully
acquired
and
updated
an old
factory
to
produce
its
electric
vehicles.
Trump
also
declared
that
“Chrysler
is
moving a
major
plant
from
Mexico
to
Michigan.”
That’s
not
exactly
the
case,
either.
Chrysler
announced
it will
move
production
of
heavy-duty
pickup
trucks
from
Mexico
to
Michigan,
but the
plant is
not
closing
in
Mexico.
It will
start
producing
other
vehicles
for
global
sales
and no
change
in its
workforce
is
anticipated.
___
TRUMP:
“We
repealed
the core
of the
disastrous
Obamacare
— the
individual
mandate
is now
gone.”
THE
FACTS:
No, it’s
not
gone.
It’s
going,
in 2019.
People
who go
without
insurance
this
year are
still
subject
to
fines.
Congress
did
repeal
the
unpopular
requirement
that
most
Americans
carry
insurance
or risk
a tax
penalty,
but that
takes
effect
next
year.
President
Donald
Trump
talked
about
business
moving
to the
U.S.,
chain
migration,
energy
exports
and the
Islamic
State
group.
We break
down the
facts.
It’s
a far
cry from
what
Trump
and the
GOP-led
Congress
set out
to do
last
year,
which
was to
scrap
most of
the
sweeping
Obama-era
health
law and
replace
it with
a
Republican
alternative.
The GOP
blueprint
would
have
left
millions
more
Americans
uninsured,
making
it even
more
unpopular
than
“Obamacare.”
Other
major
parts of
the
overhaul
remain
in
place,
including
its
Medicaid
expansion,
protections
for
people
with
pre-existing
conditions,
guaranteed
“essential”
health
benefits,
and
subsidized
private
health
insurance
for
people
with
modest
incomes.
___
TRUMP:
“Our
massive
tax cuts
provide
tremendous
relief
for the
middle
class
and
small
business.”
THE
FACTS:
That
depends
on how
you
define
tremendous.
The
biggest
beneficiaries
from the
tax law
are
wealthy
Americans
and
corporations.
Most
Americans
will pay
less in
taxes
this
year.
The
nonpartisan
Tax
Policy
Center
estimates
that
about 80
percent
of U.S.
households
will get
a tax
cut,
with
about 15
percent
seeing
little
change
and 5
percent
paying
more.
President
Donald
Trump
claps
during
the
State of
the
Union
address
in the
House
chamber
of the
U.S.
Capitol
to a
joint
session
of
Congress
Tuesday,
Jan. 30,
2018 in
Washington.
(Win
McNamee/Pool
via AP)
Middle-class
households
—
defined
as those
making
between
roughly
$49,000
and
$86,000
a year —
will see
their
tax
bills
drop by
about
$930,
the Tax
Policy
Center
calculates.
That
will
lift
their
after-tax
incomes
by 1.6
percent.
The
richest
1
percent,
meanwhile,
will
save
$51,140,
lifting
their
after-tax
incomes
by 3.4
percent,
or more
than
twice as
much as
the
middle
class.
___
TRUMP:
“We have
sent
thousands
and
thousands
and
thousands
of MS-13
horrible
people
out of
this
country
or into
our
prisons.”
THE
FACTS:
That’s
an
exaggeration
and goes
beyond
how even
Attorney
General
Jeff
Sessions,
the
Trump
administration’s
most
aggressive
anti-gang
enforcer,
characterizes
the
scope of
the
effort.
Sessions
said in
speeches
this
week
that
federal
authorities
had
secured
the
convictions
of
nearly
500
human
traffickers
and
1,200
gang
members,
“and
worked
with our
international
allies
to
arrest
or
charge
more
than
4,000
MS-13
members.”
On other
occasions,
the
attorney
general
has
specifically
said the
4,000
number
reflects
work
done
with
“our
partners
in
Central
America.”
That
suggests
that at
least
some of
the
MS-13
members
Trump is
referring
to
weren’t
actually
in the
U.S when
they
were
arrested,
and
aren’t
now in
U.S.
prisons.
___
TRUMP:
“We have
ended
the war
on
beautiful
clean
coal.”
THE
FACTS:
Coal is
not
clean.
According
to the
Energy
Department,
more
than 83
percent
of all
major
air
pollutants
— sulfur
dioxide,
carbon
dioxide,
toxic
mercury
and
dangerous
soot
particles
— from
power
plants
are from
coal,
even
though
coal
makes up
only 43
percent
of the
power
generation.
Power
plants
are the
No. 1
source
of those
pollutants.
Coal
produces
nearly
twice as
much
heat-trapping
carbon
dioxide
per
energy
created
as
natural
gas, the
department
says.
In
2011,
coal
burning
emitted
more
than 6
million
tons of
sulfur
dioxide
and
nitrogen
oxides
versus
430,000
tons
from
other
energy
sources
combined.
___
TRUMP:
“Last
year,
the
Congress
passed,
and I
signed,
the
landmark
VA
Accountability
Act.
Since
its
passage,
my
administration
has
already
removed
more
than
1,500 VA
employees
who
failed
to give
our
veterans
the care
they
deserve.”
THE
FACTS:
Not
according
to
information
on the
Veterans
Affairs
website
. It’s
true
that
more
than
1,500
firings
at the
VA have
occurred
so far
during
the
Trump
administration.
But more
than 500
of those
firings
occurred
from
Jan. 20,
when
Trump
took
office,
to late
June,
when the
new
accountability
law
began to
take
effect.
That
means
roughly
one-third
of the
1,500
firings
were not
attributed
by VA to
the new
law.
After
the
speech
and in
response
to
questions
from the
AP, VA
produced
a new
document
Wednesday
that
supports
Trump’s
statement
— but
only by
changing
how
removed
employees
are
counted.
It
introduced
a new
category,
“probationary
removals,”
which
increases
the
total of
removed
employees
to more
than
1,700
since
the law
was
passed.
The
department
included
more
than 700
new
employees
who were
not
extended
permanent
employment
after
their
probationary
periods
expired.
Congress
passed
the
legislation
in June
making
it
easier
to fire
VA
employees
and
shortening
the time
employees
have to
appeal
disciplinary
actions.
But the
law’s
impact
on
improving
accountability
at the
department
remains
unclear:
More VA
employees
were
fired in
former
President
Barack
Obama’s
last
budget
year,
for
instance,
than in
Trump’s
first.
___
TRUMP:
“Last
year, I
also
pledged
that we
would
work
with our
allies
to
extinguish
ISIS
from the
face of
the
Earth.
One year
later, I
am proud
to
report
that the
coalition
to
defeat
ISIS has
liberated
very
close to
100
percent
of the
territory
just
recently
held by
these
killers
in Iraq
and in
Syria
and in
other
locations,
as well.
But
there is
much
more
work to
be done.
We will
continue
our
fight
until
ISIS is
defeated.”
THE
FACTS:
Although
it’s
true
that the
Islamic
State
group
has lost
nearly
100
percent
of the
territory
it held
in Syria
and Iraq
when the
U.S.
began
airstrikes
in both
countries
in 2014,
Syria
remains
wracked
by civil
war,
with
much of
that
country
controlled
by the
government
of
Russian
ally
Syrian
President
Bashar
Assad
and not
by
U.S.-allied
groups.
The
Iraqi
government
has
declared
itself
fully
liberated
from IS.
The
progress
cited by
Trump
did not
start
with his
presidency.
The
U.S.-led
coalition
recaptured
much
land,
including
several
key
cities
in Iraq,
before
he took
office.
And the
assault
on
Mosul,
which
was the
extremists’
main
stronghold
in
northern
Iraq,
was
begun
during
the
Obama
administration.
But in
the past
year the
counter-ISIS
campaign
has
accelerated,
based
largely
on the
approach
Trump
inherited.
He’s
right
that
more
remains
to be
done to
eliminate
IS as an
extremist
threat,
even
after it
has been
defeated
militarily.
The
group is
still
able to
inspire
attacks
in the
West
based on
its
ideology,
and it
is
trying
to make
inroads
in
places
like
Afghanistan
and
Libya.