U.S.
Vice
President
and
Democratic
presidential
nominee
Kamala
Harris
attends
a town
hall
presented
by
Spanish-language
network
Univision
at
University
of
Nevada,
Las
Vegas,
Nevada.
REUTERS/Evelyn
Hockstein |
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Harris
overtakes
Trump
among
suburban
voters,
Reuters/Ipsos
polling
shows
By Jason
Lange,
Bo
Erickson
7–9
minutes
Harris
leads
Trump
among
suburban
voters
by 47%
to 41%
Harris
gains
support
from
middle-income
households,
now
leading
Trump
45% to
43%
Harris'
modest
national
lead
significant
but
battleground
states
remain
crucial
WASHINGTON,
Oct 10
(Reuters)
-
Democratic
presidential
candidate
Kamala
Harris
has
erased
Republican
rival
Donald
Trump's
advantage
in the
vast
middle
of
American
society:
suburban
residents
and
middle-income
households,
an
analysis
of
Reuters/Ipsos
polling
shows.
Since
President
Joe
Biden
ended
his
flagging
reelection
bid on
July 21,
Vice
President
Harris
has
pulled
into the
lead in
both of
these
large
demographic
groups,
reinvigorating
Democrats'
prospects
in the
Nov. 5
election,
though
the race
remains
exceptionally
close.
Suburbanites,
who make
up about
half of
the U.S.
electorate
and are
as
racially
diverse
as the
nation
at
large,
are a
key
prize.
Biden
beat
Trump in
suburban
counties
by about
six
percentage
points
in the
2020
presidential
election.
Before
Biden
dropped
out,
Trump
was
leading
him 43%
to 40%
among
suburbanites
in
Reuters/Ipsos
polls
conducted
in June
and
July,
reflecting
the
Democrat's
struggle
to
energize
supporters.
Harris
began
closing
the gap
when she
launched
her
campaign
in July
and led
Trump
47% to
41%
among
suburban
voters
in
polling
across
September
and
October.
That
represents
a
nine-point
swing in
the
Democrat's
favor,
according
to the
analysis
of six
Reuters/Ipsos
polls
that
included
responses
from
over
6,000
registered
voters.
During
the same
periods,
Trump
went
from
leading
Biden
44% to
37%
among
voters
in
households
that
earn
between
$50,000
and
$100,000
-
roughly
the
middle
third of
the
nation -
to trail
Harris
43% to
45%,
also a
nine-point
swing
away
from
Trump.
The
figures
had
margins
of error
of
around 3
percentage
points.
Trump
carried
this
group
52%-47%
in 2020,
according
to a Pew
Research
Center
analysis
of exit
polls.
Reuters/Ipsos
surveys
have
shown
voters
consider
the
economy
the No.
1 issue
ahead of
the
election
and in a
poll
conducted
in
October,
46% of
voters
said
Trump
was the
better
candidate
for the
economy,
8 points
more
than
Harris'
38%.
The
polls
have
also
shown
Trump as
the more
trusted
candidate
on
immigration
and
crime.
Trump
told
supporters
in
August
he was
the
candidate
that
would
keep
suburbs
safe and
ensure
that
migrants
coming
across
the
border
illegally
are kept
"away
from the
suburbs."
Trump
has
blamed
the
Biden
administration
for
inflation
that has
hurt
middle
class
Americans.
Harris,
meanwhile,
has put
considerable
focus in
her
speeches
on
pledges
to
increase
the size
of the
middle
class.
She also
is more
often
picked
in polls
as the
better
candidate
for
protecting
democracy
and
taking a
stand
against
political
extremism.
"Her
focus on
affordability
has been
highly
effective
in
narrowing
Trump's
advantage
on
inflation
and the
economy,"
said
David
Wasserman,
a
political
analyst
at the
Cook
Political
Report.
Wasserman
said
Harris
appeared
to be
performing
well
among
relatively
affluent
suburbanites
who
could be
growing
more
optimistic
about
the
economy,
while
her
gains
among
middle-income
voters
could be
due to
her
campaign's
regular
pledges
to help
middle-class
households.
But he
noted
that
voter
turnout
in
Democratic-leaning
urban
areas
and
Republican-leaning
rural
towns
could
also be
critical
in
deciding
the
election.
Harris
supporters
contacted
by
Reuters
for
follow-up
interviews
this
week
also
said
they had
not paid
much
attention
to her
before
she
became a
presidential
candidate,
and that
they
became
more
supportive
of her
as they
learned
more
about
her.
The
latest
of the
six
polls,
conducted
Oct.
4-7,
showed
Harris
up a
marginal
3
percentage
points
over
Trump
among
registered
voters
overall,
46% to
43%.
Her
modest
edge in
national
polling
is
significant
although
the
winner
of the
election
will
likely
be
determined
by the
results
in seven
battleground
states -
Arizona,
Michigan,
Pennsylvania,
North
Carolina,
Nevada,
Wisconsin
and
Georgia
- where
polls
have
also
shown a
tight
race.
Winning
the
middle -
whether
nationally
or in
the
election's
key
states -
won't
necessarily
crown
the
victor.
Democrat
Hillary
Clinton,
who got
nearly 3
million
votes
more
than
Trump
nationwide
in the
2016
election
and beat
him in
suburban
counties
by about
1
percentage
point,
still
lost the
election
when
Trump
flipped
six
states
that had
voted
Democratic
in 2012.
Poll
respondent
Sheila
Lester,
an
83-year-old
Harris
supporter
living
in
Peoria,
Arizona,
which
mostly
lies in
the
state's
battleground
Maricopa
County,
said in
a phone
interview
that she
had
become
convinced
Trump
would
beat
Biden.
She said
she
rejoiced
when the
Democratic
Party
quickly
coalesced
around
the
candidacy
of
Harris,
especially
since
she
could be
the
first
woman
U.S.
president.
"The
response
that she
has
gotten
has made
me a
little
bit more
proud of
this
country,"
said
Lester,
a
retired
customer
service
employee
who
considers
herself
part of
the
middle
class.
She said
she
liked
Harris'
toughness
on
abortion
rights
and her
pledge
to grow
the
middle
class.
"I am
definitely
anti-Trump,
but I
believe
I'm more
pro-Harris."
Maricopa
County
played
an
important
role in
Biden's
2020
victory,
when the
county
narrowly
flipped
Democratic
after
voting
for
Trump in
2016.
Karen
Davidson,
83, who
lives in
West
Bloomfield,
Michigan,
a
middle-class
suburb
of
Detroit,
said she
had not
been
that
familiar
with
Harris
before
she
moved to
the top
of the
ticket.
"I
needed
to know
more
about
her to
form any
kind of
thought,"
Davidson
said.
"The way
she
stood up
to
people
who were
berating
her, I
had to
respect
that
having
been in
the
industrial
machinery
business
when
women
didn't
work in
it, I
know
what
that's
like,"
Davidson
continued.
"She had
the
strength,
and
that's
what's
needed
to run
our
country."
In
Pooler,
Georgia,
a suburb
of
Savannah,
grocery
store
employee
Kevin
Garcia
said he
also was
relieved
Biden
had
bowed
out and
preferred
Harris'
pledges
to
support
small
businesses
over
Trump's
promise
to tax
imported
goods.
"I just
feel
better
about
the
chances,"
said
Garcia,
24, who
lives in
a
single-family
home
neighborhood
in the
state
that,
like
Arizona,
narrowly
flipped
Democratic
in 2020.
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