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America’s
unemployed
say
they’ll
go back
to work
when
they
feel
safe –
and
well-compensated
By
Heather
Long
washingtonpost.com
WASHINGTON
- The
anemic
September
employment
report,
with
only
194,000
jobs
added,
illustrates
the
extent
to which
the
recovery
stalled
as
coronavirus
cases
surged
last
month,
but it
also
signals
something
deeper:
America’s
unemployed
are
still
struggling
with
child-care
and
health
issues,
and they
are
reluctant
to
return
to jobs
they see
as
unsafe
or
undercompensated.
For
months,
economists
predicted
a surge
in
hiring
in
September
as
unemployment
benefits
expired
for
millions
of
workers
and
schools
reopened
across
the
country.
Instead,
last
month
marked
the
weakest
hiring
this
year,
and an
alarming
number
of women
had to
stop
working
again to
deal
with
unstable
school
and
child-care
situations.
The
numbers
are
striking:
309,000
women
over age
20
dropped
out of
the
labor
force in
September,
meaning
they
quit
work or
halted
their
job
searches.
In
contrast,
182,000
men
joined
the
labor
force,
Labor
Department
data
showed.
The
simplest
explanation
for the
mediocre
jobs
gains in
September
is the
rapidly
spreading
delta
variant
of the
coronavirus.
It
zapped a
lot of
momentum
from the
recovery
as
people
in many
parts of
the
country
became
more
hesitant
to eat
out and
travel.
A mere
2,100
jobs
were
added in
hotels
and just
29,000
in
restaurants.
The
delta
surge
also
torpedoed
the
reopening
of
public
schools
and the
return
to
in-person
learning.
Schools
repeatedly
faced
outbreaks
and
concerns
from
staff
members,
including
many bus
drivers,
who were
hesitant
to go
back to
driving
vehicles
teeming
with
children,
as those
under 12
can’t be
vaccinated.
“It’s
been so
unpredictable.
In-person
school
has not
been
reliable,
and
working
moms had
to
balance
that
with
trying
to have
a
career,”
said
Alicia
Sasser
Modestino,
an
economics
professor
at
Northeastern
University.
“My
9-year-old
woke up
with
sniffles
and
could
not go
to
school
today. I
am
living
this in
real
time.”
The
September
jobs
report
offered
fresh
evidence
contradicting
Republicans
who have
said
that
generous
unemployment
aid has
been
keeping
people
away
from the
workforce.
Millions
of
people
lost all
aid or
had it
significantly
scaled
back at
the
start of
September.
But
there
was not
an
immediate
wave of
workers
returning
to jobs.
The
key
takeaway
from the
jobs
report
is that
this is
an
uneven
and
bumpy
recovery.
The
reason
the
United
States
has
roughly
11
million
job
openings
and 7.7
million
unemployed
is more
complex
than
many are
willing
to
admit.
The
coronavirus
continues
to be a
major
factor
in
people’s
hesitancy
to
return
to work,
but
there is
something
deeper
going on
in 2021.
Workers,
especially
low-wage
workers,
are
revolting
against
years of
poor pay
and
stressful
conditions.
It
remains
unclear
how the
Great
Reassessment
of work
will
play out
going
forward.
For now,
people
are
still
hesitant
to take
the
first
jobs
available
to them,
if they
don’t
believe
they’re
good
jobs.
And they
are not
reluctant
to quit
a
situation
they
don’t
like.
“The
big news
out of
the jobs
report
was the
delta
variant
slowed
things
down.
That
disproportionately
hit
lower-wage
workers,”
said
University
of
Michigan
economist
Betsey
Stevenson.
“But
people
are also
thinking
they can
afford
to wait
for a
better
job — or
a safe
job — to
come
along.”
For
those
looking
for
silver
linings
in the
report,
the most
obvious
is that
the U.S.
unemployment
rate
fell to
4.8
percent
in
September
— the
lowest
since
the
pandemic
hit. It
marks a
stunning
rebound
in just
a year
and a
half
from
April
2020,
when the
official
unemployment
rate hit
14.7
percent
(and it
was
probably
even
higher
since
the
Census
Bureau
struggled
to do
its
normal
interviews
that
month).
It
took
nearly
seven
years
for
unemployment
to drop
this low
after
the
Great
Recession.
Many
credit
the
swift
government
response
this
time
around,
including
trillions
in aid
for
American
households
and
businesses,
for
keeping
people
from
falling
into
poverty
and
helping
drive a
swifter
rebound.
But
the
unemployment
rate
declined
for the
wrong
reason:
The
labor
force
got
smaller
in
September.
Fewer
people,
especially
women,
were
looking
for work
as they
continued
to
struggle
with
child
care and
schooling
uncertainty.
More
than 5
million
Americans
have
stopped
looking
for jobs
during
this
crisis.
A big
question
remains:
Will
they
return?
Bahar
Cetinsoy
is among
those
millions.
She was
a
substitute
teacher
in New
York
City
before
the
pandemic.
She and
her
husband
relocated
to
College
Park,
Md.,
when he
got
another
job
offer.
Cetinsoy
is
trying
to get
certified
to teach
in her
new
state.
She’s
also
taking
care of
their
young
son, who
was born
during
the
pandemic.
She
hopes to
return
to work
soon,
but
there
are many
barriers.
“Child
care is
a big
factor.
It’s
expensive.
If I get
a
part-time
teaching
job, I
would
pay more
for
child
care
than I
would be
making,”
she
said. “I
have
never
been
unemployed
for this
long.”
The
optimistic
view on
Wall
Street
is that
September
was just
another
blip.
There
was a
big
decline
in
public
education
jobs,
which
was
unusual
and
probably
a result
of many
schools
hiring
over the
summer
instead
of
waiting
until
September.
Excluding
government
and
public
education
jobs,
private-sector
hiring
rose
317,000
last
month.
September
saw
modest
job
gains in
nearly
every
sector
outside
of
government.
There
were
74,000
hospitality
jobs
added,
60,000
business
services
positions,
56,000
retail
jobs,
47,000
warehouse
and
transportation
jobs,
and
26,000
manufacturing
jobs.
Even
more
encouraging
is that
coronavirus
cases
appear
to be
subsiding,
and
vaccines
could be
available
for
children
soon.
This is
driving
renewed
hope
that
hiring
will
pick up
during
the rest
of the
year and
into
2022.
“The
runway
is
cleared
for a
fall/winter
jobs
boom. I
don’t
know if
it
starts
this
month or
next,
but I
believe
it’s
coming,”
tweeted
Adam
Ozimek,
chief
economist
at
Upwork,
a jobs
site.
But
forecasters
have
repeatedly
been too
optimistic
this
year.
The
reality
is that
people
continue
to feel
unable
to
return
to work.
For
some,
ongoing
child-care
or
eldercare
issues
are
holding
them
back.
For
others,
it’s
concerns
about
being in
a job
with
heavy
exposure
to the
coronavirus
— or one
where
they
would
repeatedly
encounter
customers
who
don’t
take
precautions
like
mask-wearing
and
vaccinations.
Some of
this may
improve
in the
coming
months,
but many
government
and
business
leaders
have
underestimated
how long
the
deadly
virus
would
stick
around.
Beyond
the
virus,
there is
a deeper
question
of what
jobs —
and pay
— people
are
willing
to come
back
for.
Hourly
wages
continued
to rise
in
September
as many
businesses
increased
pay to
try to
attract
workers,
but the
wage
gains
have
almost
entirely
been
eaten up
by
higher
inflation
this
year.
There’s
also a
clear
divergence
in how
many
college-educated,
white-collar
workers
view
this
economy
and how
non-college-educated
workers
see it.
Employment
in
September
grew by
350,000
among
people
with a
college
degree
or at
least
some
college
education.
In
contrast,
employment
declined
by more
than
430,000
among
Americans
with a
high
school
degree
or less.
“The
labor
market
isn’t
working
at the
bottom,”
said
Stevenson,
the
University
of
Michigan
economist.
For
now,
many
working-class
Americans
have
some
savings
left
from
their
stimulus
checks
and
unemployment
aid, and
they
often
supplement
it by
taking
on gig
jobs
like
driving
for Uber
Eats.
This
gives
them
more of
a
cushion
to wait
for the
right
job to
come
along.
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