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Analysis:
Can Ron
DeSantis
take his
Miami
miracle
national
in 2024?
By James
Oliphant
reuters.com
MIAMI -
As he
toured
the
country
before
the
formal
announcement
of his
presidential
bid on
Wednesday,
Florida
Governor
Ron
DeSantis
regaled
crowds
with the
story of
his
surprising
re-election
victory
last
year in
sprawling,
largely
Hispanic
Miami-Dade
County.
It was
the
first
time a
Republican
had won
the
Democratic-leaning
county
in 20
years,
and
DeSantis
did it
by
winning
62% of
the
Hispanic
vote.
That
victory
in 2022
is
raising
hopes
among
some
Republicans
about
how
DeSantis
could
perform
in the
2024
presidential
contest
among
Hispanic
voters
nationwide.
Those
voters
comprise
almost
15% of
the U.S.
electorate
and have
skewed
Democratic
in past
presidential
elections.
"People
are
tired of
being
told
that
because
you are
born a
certain
way, you
must
vote a
certain
way,"
said
Kevin
Cooper,
vice-chairman
of the
Miami-Dade
Republican
Party,
which
helped
get out
the vote
for
DeSantis.
DeSantis'
advisers
did not
respond
to
requests
for
comment
on his
strategy
with
regard
to
Hispanic
voters.
But more
than a
dozen
Republican
and
Democratic
operatives
described
a
multi-pronged
approach
that
relied
on
outreach
to
Latinos
who
traditionally
voted
Democratic,
messaging
on
economic
opportunity
in the
wake of
the
pandemic
and
aggressive
use of
Spanish-language
media.
DeSantis'
victory
showed
"that
when
Republicans
focus on
Latino
engagement
and they
connect
and are
comfortable
in a
roomful
of
Latinos,
they
will get
a
response,”
said
Daniel
Garza,
president
of the
LIBRE
initiative,
a
nationwide
effort
that
seeks to
bring
Latinos
into the
conservative
fold.
DeSantis
found
success
with
Hispanics
in
Florida
even as
he
positioned
himself
as an
immigration
hardliner
who
champions
border
security
and
derides
so-called
"sanctuary
cities."
In
September,
he
arranged
for two
planeloads
of
Venezuelan
migrants
to be
flown
from
Texas to
Massachusetts.
This
month,
he
signed a
new
state
immigration
measure
that
provides
more
money
for
migrant
relocation
and
requires
certain
employers
to
verify a
worker's
immigration
status.
The
moves
brought
criticism
from
Democrats
and some
Latino
advocacy
groups,
but
DeSantis
has
maintained
in
speeches
that
Hispanic
voters
want
strong
enforcement
of
federal
immigration
laws.
A Pew
Research
Center
poll
found
that
less
than
half of
Hispanics
surveyed
said
there is
a
significant
difference
between
the two
political
parties,
particularly
among
younger
voters,
suggesting
loyalty
may come
down to
the side
that
works
harder
for
their
vote.
“It
concerns
me,”
said
Chuck
Rocha, a
Latino
strategist
who
advised
Bernie
Sanders’
presidential
campaign.
“It
should
concern
any
Democrat.”
TOUGH TO
REPLICATE?
Rocha
and
other
Democrats
have
their
doubts,
however,
about
whether
DeSantis
can
replicate
his
success
in
states
with
large
Hispanic
populations
such as
Arizona
and
Nevada
where
Democrats
won two
competitive
U.S.
Senate
seats in
2022 and
President
Joe
Biden
prevailed
by
razor-thin
margins
in 2020.
They
point to
the
demographics
of South
Florida,
with its
large,
conservative-leaning
Cuban
population.
"This is
a very
Miami
phenomenon,"
said
Fernand
Amandi,
a
Democratic
pollster
and
consultant
in
Miami.
"That's
not
going to
play in
San
Diego or
Los
Angeles
or
Phoenix."
Mexican
voters
have
largely
been
aligned
with
Democrats
since
the
1960s,
while
Cuban-Americans
fleeing
the
Castro
regime
tended
to
support
Republicans
who took
a hard
line
against
Communism.
But
South
Florida
more
recently
has been
home to
waves of
new
emigres
from
Venezuela,
Colombia
and
Nicaragua,
who have
no such
loyalties
and were
viewed
by
Republicans
as up
for
grabs.
DeSantis
made an
effort
to
conduct
roundtable
discussions
in those
communities
and
frequently
commented
on the
internal
politics
of their
home
countries.
He
outraised
his
Democratic
opponent,
Charlie
Crist,
by more
than 6
to 1,
and also
ended up
winning
the
majority
of the
Puerto
Rican
vote
statewide.
At a
political
event in
Iowa
earlier
this
year,
DeSantis
said he
didn't
win over
Hispanic
voters
by
appealing
to their
ethnicity.
"We
treated
everyone
as
Americans,"
he said.
"We
share
the same
values.”
In the
2020
presidential
election,
Donald
Trump
pulled a
larger
share of
the
Hispanic
vote –
32% -
than any
Republican
since
President
George
W. Bush
in 2004,
with
Latino
working-class
men, in
particular,
defecting
in large
numbers.
Roberto
Suro, an
expert
on
Latino
politics
at the
University
of
Southern
California,
said
segments
of the
Latino
electorate
in
recent
years
are
beginning
to
behave
more
like
their
white
counterparts,
with
working-class
voters
and
evangelicals
being
drawn
toward
Republicans.
An
economy-focused
message
such as
DeSantis'
could
pull in
Latino
votes in
other
states,
Suro
said.
Democrats
say
DeSantis’
insistence
on
keeping
businesses
and
school
open and
opposing
vaccine
mandates
during
the
COVID-19
pandemic
likely
appealed
to
middle-class
and
working-class
Hispanic
voters
who
could
not
afford
to stay
home and
have
their
kids out
of
school
and who
otherwise
might
not have
supported
a
Republican
candidate.
Republicans
contend
that
DeSantis’
staunch
opposition
to
progressive
education
policies
around
race and
gender
also
resonated
with
many
culturally
conservative
Latino
voters.
"Democrats
were
stepping
on rakes
on every
cultural
issue
imaginable,"
said
Giancarlo
Sopo, a
Cuban-American
Republican
consultant
from
South
Florida.
DeSantis,
he said,
"had the
right
cultural
message
and
certainly
the
right
economic
stance."
Reporting
by James
Oliphant
in
Miami;
Editing
by
Colleen
Jenkins
and
Suzanne
Goldenberg
Our
Standards:
The
Thomson
Reuters
Trust
Principles.
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